Centre LSD’s Credibility Assessment of the 2026 Osun Governorship Election

African Centre for Leadership, Strategy & Development (Centre LSD)

Using the Centre LSD Electoral Credibility Index and THRIVE Framework

Centre LSD’s post-election assessment rates the 15 August 2026 Osun State governorship election at 65% overall, or Moderate Credibility. The report examines election administration, technology, security, participation, inclusion and results management, and recommends improvements ahead of the 2027 general elections. It calls for an audit of polling-unit result discrepancies while making clear that the discrepancies alone do not establish that the election outcome was changed.

Executive Summary

The Osun State Governorship Election held on 15 August 2026 was an important test of Nigeria’s electoral institutions ahead of the 2027 general elections. The election was conducted across 30 Local Government Areas (LGAs), 332 Registration Areas/Wards and 3,763 polling units. INEC had announced 2,339,233 registered voters and more than 1.9 million collected Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs). Centre LSD deployed trained observers to selected polling units across the three senatorial districts to assess compliance with electoral procedures and the overall quality and credibility of the process.

The election resulted in the re-election of incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord Party and received 511,067 votes. His closest challenger, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC), received 444,815 votes, while Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) polled 17,180 votes. The margin between the first and second candidates was 66,252 votes. Officially reported figures indicate 985,079 valid votes and 20,721 rejected votes.

Centre LSD’s field observation found that the election was largely peaceful and orderly, with INEC personnel, security agencies and party agents generally performing their roles professionally. Accreditation, voting and collation proceeded peacefully in most of the polling units monitored. However, the process recorded significant weaknesses, including delays in some locations, BVAS malfunction, uneven security deployment, breaches of ballot secrecy, inadequate accessibility for persons with disabilities (PWDs), vote buying and voter inducement.

The post-election assessment has, however, identified an additional and particularly important concern relating to results integrity and transparency. Dataphyte’s analysis of 3,752 polling-unit results uploaded to the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal identified arithmetic and documentation discrepancies in more than 900 polling units. These included cases in which used ballots exceeded accredited voters, valid/rejected/spoiled ballots did not reconcile with ballots reportedly used, numerical figures differed from figures written in words, and used or unused ballots exceeded ballots reportedly issued. This finding is independently available in Dataphyte’s post-election investigation.

It is important to stress that the identified discrepancies do not by themselves establish manipulation of the overall election or demonstrate that they altered the final outcome. Indeed, Dataphyte explicitly makes this qualification. Nevertheless, the scale of the discrepancies is significant because electoral credibility depends not merely on whether voting takes place peacefully but on whether every stage—from accreditation and voting through recording, transmission, collation and declaration—is internally consistent, transparent and independently verifiable.

Applying the Centre LSD Electoral Credibility Index and THRIVE Framework—Transparency, Healthy Environment, Reforms, Inclusivity, Voter and Political Education, and Equipment Functionality—this assessment assigns the Osun State Governorship Election an overall credibility score of 65 per cent and rates it as having MODERATE CREDIBILITY.

This score is lower than the 72.5 per cent Moderately High Credibility assigned by Centre LSD to the June 2026 Ekiti governorship election. The principal factors depressing the Osun rating are the extensive post-election result-sheet discrepancies, persistent vote buying and voter inducement, BVAS difficulties, accessibility deficits, uneven security coverage and documented cases of violence, overvoting and cancellation.

1. Introduction

Elections are central to democratic governance because they provide the institutional mechanism through which citizens choose leaders, confer legitimacy and hold governments accountable. Yet, as the Centre LSD Credibility Threshold of Elections argues, the existence of an election does not automatically make an electoral process democratic or credible. Credibility concerns how just, true, predictable, open, inclusive and measurable an electoral process is within applicable laws and institutional frameworks.

Electoral credibility is particularly important in Nigeria because disputed and poorly managed elections have historically contributed to legitimacy deficits, political instability, citizen distrust and weakened democratic consolidation. The literature on democracy and elections similarly emphasises that credible elections require more than election-day voting: they depend on political competition, institutional impartiality, transparency, participation, accountability and confidence that citizens’ choices are accurately reflected in declared results (Diamond, 2008; Elklit & Reynolds, 2005; Norris, 2014).

Centre LSD developed the THRIVE Index to provide a systematic framework for assessing these different dimensions of electoral credibility.

The 15 August 2026 Osun election provides an important opportunity to apply the Index, particularly because it occurred only months before Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.

2. Methodology and the Centre LSD THRIVE Index

This post-election assessment follows the methodology and structure adopted in Centre LSD’s Post-Election Credibility Assessment of the Ekiti State Governorship Election held on 20 June 2026. The Ekiti assessment applied six dimensions of the THRIVE Framework and produced a composite credibility score of 72.5 per cent.

For Osun, the evidence base has been broadened to include:

Centre LSD’s interim and final observation reports; field observations from the Nigerian Civil Society Situation Room and its partners; publicly available election results; Dataphyte’s election-day monitoring and subsequent analysis of polling-unit result sheets; and relevant scholarly literature and online sources.

The THRIVE Index comprises six interconnected dimensions:

• T – Transparency: openness and accountability throughout the electoral process, from accreditation through results declaration.
• H – Healthy Environment: security, peaceful competition and an environment free from violence, intimidation and coercion.
• R – Reforms: the adequacy and implementation of electoral laws, regulations, institutional innovations and technologies.
• I – Inclusivity: the participation and accommodation of women, young people, opposition candidates, PWDs and other potentially marginalised groups.
• V – Voter and Political Education: citizen mobilisation, political education, resistance to misinformation and inducement, and informed participation.
• E – Equipment Functionality and Availability: logistics, timely deployment and effective functioning of electoral technologies and equipment, especially BVAS.

The numerical scores below are therefore Centre LSD’s analytical application of the THRIVE dimensions to the accumulated evidence, following the scoring pattern used for the Ekiti assessment; they should not be confused with scores previously published in the field observation reports.

3. Election Administration and Logistics

INEC’s overall administration of the election demonstrated significant strengths.

Centre LSD observers reported that officials arrived early and commenced setting up in many polling units. In Ejigbo, Egbedore, Iwo and Osogbo, officials were observed setting up around 7:25 a.m.; Boripe recorded arrival at approximately 7:28 a.m. However, delayed arrival occurred in some locations, including Atakunmosa East.

The Situation Room similarly found that voting commenced at the prescribed 8:30 a.m. in 87 per cent of polling units observed, while acknowledging late commencement and congestion in some locations.

This indicates a generally competent election administration but with operational deficiencies that need to be addressed before the much larger and more complex 2027 general elections.

Assessment: Moderately High Credibility

4. Election Technology and BVAS

BVAS remains one of the most important electoral reforms introduced in recent Nigerian elections. Its use strengthens voter authentication and reduces opportunities for multiple accreditation.

In Osun, Centre LSD observers reported smooth BVAS operation in several polling units. However, malfunctioning or slow devices were reported in Ilesa West, Oriade, Ejigbo, Osogbo, Ayedaade, Ife South and other locations. In Irepodun, a malfunction reportedly interrupted the process for approximately 30 minutes before INEC intervention restored operations.

Dataphyte’s election-day monitoring, based on more than 60 trained observers covering 140 polling units across all 30 LGAs, likewise recorded administrative delays, BVAS failures and voter inducement.

The evidence therefore suggests that BVAS substantially supported the election but that reliability, redundancy and adequate deployment remain unresolved concerns.

Assessment: Moderate Credibility

5. Security and the Electoral Environment

One of the strongest features of the election was its generally peaceful character.

The Situation Room described the election-day environment as calm despite a politically charged pre-election atmosphere. Centre LSD similarly concluded that accreditation, voting and collation proceeded peacefully in most monitored polling units.

Nevertheless, the picture was not uniformly positive. Security deployment was uneven: Centre LSD recorded as many as ten officers at some locations while only one security officer was observed at some polling units in Boluwaduro and Ilesa West.

There were also reported incidents of harassment and disruption. The Situation Room reported the physical harassment of an observer in Boripe and disruption by suspected thugs in Irewole, although security personnel were generally adequately deployed.

Results were also cancelled in some polling units because of violence and overvoting.

These incidents did not amount to widespread violence capable, on the evidence reviewed, of characterising the entire election. But they prevent an unqualified high-credibility assessment.

Assessment: Moderately High Credibility

6. Vote Buying, Voter Inducement and Ballot Secrecy

Vote buying was one of the most troubling features of the Osun election.

Centre LSD observers reported incidents or allegations of vote buying and vote trading across Ola-Oluwa, Ilesa East, Ejigbo, Obokun, Ife Central and Oriade. Some reports even alleged inappropriate financial interactions involving security personnel. Centre LSD appropriately distinguished allegations requiring further verification from established facts.

The Situation Room independently reported electoral inducement, including distribution of food and drinks, and warned that exchanging electoral choices for money, gifts or benefits fundamentally undermines the freedom of voters.

Dataphyte also documented allegations of cash inducement, including reports of payments ranging from ₦15,000 to ₦25,000 around OAU Quarters in Ife Central.

Ballot secrecy was compromised in some locations. Centre LSD recorded voting cubicles positioned too close to queues in Obokun and voters signalling their choices to party agents in Ola-Oluwa.

These practices strike at the heart of genuine electoral choice. A peaceful election cannot be regarded as fully credible where voters' preferences may be commodified, monitored or influenced through inducement.

Assessment: Low to Moderate Credibility

7. Voter Participation

Available final figures indicate approximately 1.006 million votes cast from more than 2.339 million registered voters, implying turnout of roughly 43 per cent.

This represents substantial participation, but it also means that fewer than half of registered voters participated.

Centre LSD’s field observations showed considerable variation. Some polling units recorded significant early turnout, while in one Ede South location only 486 of 978 accredited voters reportedly voted. Long queues persisted beyond the scheduled close of voting in Boripe, Irepodun, Irewole, Olorunda and Ejigbo.

The evidence points simultaneously to continued citizen interest in electoral participation and persistent problems of voter apathy and administrative delays.

Assessment: Moderate Credibility

8. Inclusivity

Electoral credibility requires that citizens can participate irrespective of disability, gender, age or social status.

Centre LSD observers found encouraging examples where elderly persons and PWDs were given priority in Osogbo and Ejigbo. However, accessibility provisions were inconsistent, and Braille facilities were reportedly absent in most centres observed.

The Situation Room reached a similar conclusion. Some polling units were physically inaccessible because of gutters and staircases, and assistive devices were unavailable in at least some locations where voters with disabilities were registered.

Consequently, while procedural accommodation existed, universal accessibility was not achieved.

Assessment: Moderate Credibility

9. Results Management and the Post-Election Discrepancy Question

This is the most consequential issue emerging from the post-election assessment.

Centre LSD had emphasised from election day that credibility ultimately depended not only on accreditation and voting but on the integrity of counting, transmission, collation and declaration.

The Situation Room observed the first IReV upload at approximately 3:49 p.m. and emphasised the need for accuracy and transparency in moving polling-unit results through ward, LGA and state collation.

The subsequent Dataphyte investigation raises serious concerns.

Of 3,752 polling-unit results uploaded to IReV, discrepancies were reportedly identified in more than 900 polling units.

More specifically, Dataphyte found:

• about 107 result sheets where ballots used did not correspond with the combined total of valid, rejected and spoiled ballots;
• 10 result sheets where ballots reportedly used exceeded ballots issued;
• about 70 polling units where unused ballots exceeded ballots reportedly issued;
• about 642 result sheets where used ballots exceeded accredited voters;
• about 114 EC8A forms where numerical figures did not correspond with figures written in words; and
• 17 EC40G forms covering 19 polling units where elections did not hold or results were cancelled.

There was also an unexplained discrepancy between the 2,339,233 registered voters announced before the election and the 2,339,544 subsequently stated during declaration—a difference of 311 voters.

These findings must be interpreted carefully.

They do not prove that the election result was manipulated, nor has the evidence reviewed for this report demonstrated that the discrepancies were sufficient to overturn the 66,252-vote margin between the two leading candidates. Dataphyte itself explicitly acknowledges that some discrepancies may be administrative or arithmetic errors and may not have affected the final outcome.

Nevertheless, credibility is not synonymous merely with whether an irregularity changes the winner. Credibility also concerns transparency, auditability, accuracy and public confidence.

Result sheets are legal and administrative records. When numbers cannot be reconciled, independent verification becomes more difficult.

For Centre LSD's THRIVE framework, this substantially affects the Transparency component of the credibility assessment.

Assessment: Moderate Credibility

10. Application of the Centre LSD THRIVE Index

The Centre LSD THRIVE framework conceives electoral credibility through six dimensions. Its underlying philosophy is that elections should generate trust, truth and triumph—the “3 Ts” of electoral credibility.

Based on the totality of evidence reviewed, the following scorecard is proposed:

The score is an equal-weight application of the six THRIVE dimensions, consistent with the scorecard approach used in the Ekiti assessment. The most substantial downward adjustment is under Transparency, reflecting the scale of result-sheet discrepancies and the importance of verifiable results management.

11. Comparison with the 2026 Ekiti Governorship Election

The comparison with Ekiti is instructive.

Centre LSD assessed Ekiti as follows: Transparency 75 per cent; Healthy Environment 85 per cent; Reforms 80 per cent; Inclusivity 60 per cent; Voter and Political Education 65 per cent; and Equipment Functionality 70 per cent, producing an overall score of 72.5 per cent—Moderately High Credibility.

The most significant difference is transparency. Whereas the Ekiti assessment identified vote buying and accreditation challenges as major integrity concerns, the Osun post-election evidence introduces the additional problem of widespread arithmetic and documentation discrepancies in polling-unit result sheets.

This is particularly important because transparency, according to Centre LSD's framework, requires the electoral process to remain open and verifiable from accreditation and voting through the publication of results.

12. Key Lessons for the 2027 General Elections

The Osun election offers important lessons for Nigeria.

First, peacefulness is necessary but insufficient for credibility. An election can be largely peaceful while still suffering significant weaknesses in vote buying, inclusion, technology and results management.

Second, IReV transparency must be matched by data integrity. Uploading polling-unit results is an important reform, but the democratic value of the system depends upon the accuracy and internal consistency of the documents uploaded.

Third, BVAS requires stronger technical redundancy. Equipment failure must not become a source of delay or potential disenfranchisement.

Fourth, vote buying is becoming one of the greatest threats to Nigerian democracy. As election administration becomes technologically more difficult to manipulate, political actors may increasingly shift manipulation towards the voter through cash, gifts, surveillance of ballot choices and other inducements.

Fifth, electoral inclusion must move from goodwill to systematic implementation. PWD accessibility cannot depend upon the particular polling unit where a citizen happens to vote.

Finally, the accuracy of election documentation is itself an integrity issue. The finding of errors in more than 900 polling units points to an urgent need to improve recruitment, training, supervision and quality control among presiding officers and other ad hoc election personnel.

13. Recommendations

Centre LSD therefore recommends the following:

1. INEC should conduct a comprehensive audit of the Osun result discrepancies. The Commission should publicly explain the arithmetic and documentation inconsistencies identified in EC8A forms and reconcile discrepancies between accreditation, ballots issued, ballots used, valid votes, rejected votes and final collation figures.
2. INEC should strengthen training of ad hoc personnel. Particular attention should be given to completing EC8A forms, ballot reconciliation, arithmetic accuracy, documentation and IReV uploading. Dataphyte's analysis similarly points to improved training as necessary to reduce errors.
3. Automated consistency checks should be incorporated into results management. Where feasible, IReV and related systems should automatically flag impossible figures—for example, ballots used exceeding ballots issued or accredited voters—for immediate verification.
4. BVAS deployment, testing and redundancy should be strengthened before 2027, particularly in polling units with large numbers of registered voters.
5. Vote buying should be treated as a major electoral offence requiring coordinated enforcement. INEC, the Police, EFCC, ICPC and other relevant agencies should improve intelligence gathering, arrest, investigation and prosecution of offenders.
6. Security agencies must enforce neutrality and accountability. Allegations of security personnel facilitating or tolerating voter inducement should be independently investigated.
7. Ballot secrecy must be rigorously protected. Polling-unit layout should prevent voters from displaying or signalling their choices to party agents or vote buyers.
8. INEC should guarantee accessibility for PWDs through Braille ballot guides, magnifying devices, accessible polling locations and other appropriate assistive facilities.
9. Voter and political education should increasingly focus on vote buying. Citizens should understand that selling a vote compromises their capacity to demand accountable government after elections.
10. Civil society should undertake systematic Parallel Vote Tabulation and results verification where appropriate, alongside observation of polling, collation and IReV uploads.
11. Electoral observation should extend beyond election day. The Osun experience demonstrates that important credibility questions can emerge only after polling-unit results have been uploaded and subjected to systematic data analysis.
12. The National Assembly should strengthen the legal framework for electoral offences and results accountability ahead of the 2027 general elections.

14. Conclusion

The 15 August 2026 Osun State Governorship Election presents a mixed but instructive picture of Nigeria's electoral development.

On the positive side, the election was largely peaceful; voters were generally able to exercise their franchise; election officials and security personnel were present across most observed polling units; party agents participated in monitoring the process; BVAS generally enabled accreditation despite reported failures; and a winner was declared without widespread post-election violence.

These achievements should be acknowledged.

However, credibility requires more than peaceful voting. The election also witnessed BVAS malfunction, uneven security deployment, vote buying and voter inducement, breaches of ballot secrecy, accessibility deficiencies, isolated violence and overvoting, and—most significantly from the post-election perspective—substantial discrepancies in polling-unit result documentation.

Centre LSD's own final observation concluded that although accreditation, voting and collation proceeded peacefully in most monitored polling units, delayed deployment, BVAS malfunction, uneven security coverage, ballot-secrecy breaches and vote buying represented points where the process fell short. The subsequent evidence on result-sheet discrepancies deepens those concerns.

At the same time, methodological caution is essential. The discrepancies documented in more than 900 polling units should not automatically be interpreted as evidence that the election was rigged or that the declared winner did not win. The evidence presently reviewed does not establish that proposition. What it does establish is a significant credibility and auditability problem requiring explanation, reconciliation and institutional correction.

The distinction is crucial:

An electoral discrepancy does not automatically prove electoral fraud, but unexplained discrepancies diminish electoral credibility.

Nigeria must therefore move beyond a conception of credible elections based simply on the absence of widespread violence or the successful declaration of a winner. A credible election should be peaceful, transparent, accurate, inclusive, technologically reliable, lawful, independently verifiable and trusted by citizens.

Final Verdict

CENTRE LSD OVERALL CREDIBILITY RATING: MODERATE CREDIBILITY — 65.0%

The Osun State Governorship Election substantially met important requirements relating to peaceful participation, election administration and the opportunity of citizens to vote. However, the combination of vote buying, BVAS challenges, uneven security, inclusion deficits, ballot-secrecy breaches and especially extensive discrepancies in polling-unit result documentation prevents the election from attaining the Moderately High Credibility rating achieved by the Ekiti governorship election.

The overriding lesson for the 2027 general elections is clear:

Nigeria must move from conducting elections that merely produce winners to conducting elections whose processes and numbers can withstand rigorous independent verification.

That is the pathway to the three outcomes envisaged by the Centre LSD Credibility Threshold: Trust, Truth and Triumph.

Selected References

• African Centre for Leadership, Strategy & Development (Centre LSD). (2025). Credibility threshold of elections: Cultivating the THRIVE Index for free and fair elections.
• African Centre for Leadership, Strategy & Development (Centre LSD). (2026). Final report on the Osun State governorship election held on 15 August 2026.
• African Centre for Leadership, Strategy & Development (Centre LSD). (2026). Post-election credibility assessment of the Ekiti State governorship election held on 20 June 2026.
• African Centre for Leadership, Strategy & Development (Centre LSD), & Women’s Rights Advancement and Protection Alternative (WRAPA). (2026). Policy brief on improving the credibility of elections in Nigeria.
• Diamond, L. (2008). The spirit of democracy: The struggle to build free societies throughout the world. Times Books.
• Elklit, J., & Reynolds, A. (2005). A framework for the systematic study of election quality. Democratization, 12(2), 147–162.
• Fukuyama, F. (2011). The origins of political order: From prehuman times to the French Revolution. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
• Huntington, S. P. (1991). The third wave: Democratization in the late twentieth century. University of Oklahoma Press.
• Igbuzor, O. (2017). Leadership, development and change. Joe-Tolalu & Associates.
• Norris, P. (2014). Why electoral integrity matters. Cambridge University Press.
• Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room. (2026). Observation of the 2026 Osun State Governorship Election.
• Dataphyte's detailed post-election investigation of the Osun result sheets is available here: Osun State 2026 Governorship Election: Over 900 polling units show discrepancies in election results. Its election-day analysis provides additional evidence on delays, BVAS problems and voter inducement. Dataphyte Osun Election Day Analysis.